POPULATION STUDIES
Population studies is broadly defined as the scientific study of human populations. Major areas studied include broad population dynamics; fertility and family dynamics; health, aging, and mortality; and human capital and labor markets
POPULATION
Number of people occupied in certain locality.
POPULATION IN GEOGRAPHY
Refer to distribution of living organisms in a certain geographical location. “Organism” human population.
Is the study of demography
Demography:- Scientific study of human population
Growth :- Increase and decrease in population
Density:- Ratio between number of people and a given area
Distribution:- General settlement pattern movement as well as the aspects of economic and social development
POPULATION DYNAMICS
Is the change in number of people in given area. Either increase or decrease caused by fertility, mortality and migration
DEVELOPMENT-Changing from low stage to more advanced one in all aspect of life i.e socially, politically, economically, culturally.
POPULATION & DEVELOPMENT
Population is related to the development process and environment. Population is both the means and goal of all development.
It is reproductive resource that transforms resources in the environment to bring development.
Population can have negative or positive effects to the development
SPECIAL POPULATION TERMS
Aging Population
It’s a population in which the number of old people (above 64 years) is higher than other age groups. Old people can give some advice to the young people and can do light work like scaring away birds from the gardens.
Aging Population has the Following Consequences:-
Small size of labor force hence the resources are not utilized effectively.
Changes in the pattern of consumption, i.e. goods for old people are on higher demand like hats, medical facilities, big trousers, long dresses, walking sticks etc.
Increase in dependency ratio. The number of old people is greater than the working group hence dependency ratio increases.
There occurs labor immobility since the old people are immobile compared to the young people who keep on moving from place to place.
Decline in demand for goods that are consumed by young people e.g. dolls, nursery school facilities, small dresses etc.
Retardation in the development process due to conservativeness of the old people and lack of revolutionary ideas of the young people which would lead to transformation of the society.
Life Expectancy
It’s the number of years that an average person born in a given area may expect to live (The average age at which people die).
Child Mortality Rate (CMR)
Number of deaths occurring to children aged between 1-5 years.
This measure expresses the proportion of survivors per thousand children
born alive.
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
It’s the number of deaths occurring to children born alive but under one year old per thousand live births during the same year.
General Fertility Rate (GFR):-
Proportion of children born alive per thousand women in the reproductive period in a year
Reproductive period is a child bearing age for women 15 – 49.
Fecundity:-
It refers to the ability of a woman to conceive. Bongaarts
(1976) estimated that the maximum number of children an average woman
can produce is about 15 if she stars bearing as soon as possible after
menarche, which occurs between 12 and 14 years and continues till
menopause in the middle or early 40’s (15 – 49 years).
Child – Women Ratio (CWR):-
Ratio computed from the number of children aged 0-4 divided by the number of women of a child – bearing age usually 15 – 49 years and is usually expressed per 1000. Only on rare occasions children of 0 – 9 years can be used.
Dependency Ratio
Is the ratio of that group of the population which is unable to
meet its own needs (younger age groups (0 – 14) and the older groups
(65 years and above) to the number of people in the working age.
Sex Ratio (SR)
It’s a specific measure of the sex composition of population.
This is defined as the number of males per 100 females in a population.
In many parts of the world more males are born but because of endogenous and exogenous factors, after one to several years the difference appears whereby more males die than females. Sex ratio determination at certain age group is also affected by misreporting old ages. Males tend to report older ages than female for prestigious purposes.
FACTORS INFLUENCING POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND DENSITY
There are several factors influencing population distribution and density in the world and these can be divided into physical and human factors.
Physical Factors:-
1. Relief (Topography)
Where the slope is steep there is low or no population due to poor soils and nature of the land but where there are gentle slopes or flat surfaces there is high population since the soils are good and mechanization can take place easily. Highlands normally attract population due to good soils, rainfall, cool climates and being free from floods. But some low lands, which tend to flood usually, have low population since people avoid settling in those areas.
- Climate:
Areas with reliable rainfall like the North West Europe have attracted high population, but where there is poor rainfall like in the deserts there is low population. Also areas with very high or very low temperatures do not attract population while the areas with moderate temperature attract high population.
- Vegetation
In areas where dense vegetation is difficult to clear like in the Tropical rainforest of Amazon basin and the Congo basin as well as the Rufiji valley and mangrove forest along the coastal areas people are discouraged to live leading to sparse population or no population at all. Dense vegetation hinders penetration or communication and development. Conversely, the areas in which vegetation has led to the development of fertile soils, people are attracted since they grow crops after clearing for cultivation especially in the temperature deciduous forest and temperature grassland areas like the Paris basin.
- Soils (Edaphic Factors)
Thin, infertile or badly leached soils discourage settlement since they cannot support agriculture. Examples are the Lake District and Scottish Highlands where there has been severe leaching. Equatorial areas also discourage settlement due to soil leaching which causes decline in fertility. Good soils attract population; for example in the Nile Basin and the Southern slopes of the Kilimanjaro Mountain.
- Mineral and Energy Resources
The areas with mineral and energy resources attract population, for example, the land of South in West Germany, and Southern parts of West Africa where there are rich mineral deposits like Diamond, Oil, etc.
- Natural Hazards
Areas that are prone to natural hazards like floods in lowlands, earthquakes, tornadoes are avoided by people. But this is not always so since some areas which experience frequent floods like the fertile plains of Bangladesh and volcanic areas of Java and Indonesia are highly populated.
- Biological Factors like Diseases and Pests
People like settling in areas which are free of diseases and pests. These will have high population like the highlands of Tanzania which have healthy climate like Arusha etc.
But areas with incidence of diseases and pests infestation like mosquitoes that cause malaria, Tse-tse flies and locusts discourage population settlement like the central parts of East Africa. In Tanzania the worst affected areas are the western and southern districts like Mpanda and Liwale respectively.
- Human (Anthropogenic Factors): These include culture (tradition, religion) economic structure, transport and communication and politics.
- Social – Cultural Aspects: Some tribes have a tradition of going to continue to reproduce in the same area to create clans. In time, these areas become overpopulated and hence highly fragmented like the Kilimanjaro among the Chagga people.
Traditional beliefs like superstitions can make people avoid living in certain areas due to the fear of risking their life. Also areas where social services are readily available, like in towns there are high population unlike the rural areas where social services are poorly available.
- Economic Structure: People tend to settle in areas where there are economic opportunities like in towns due to the presence of trade and industries. Urban industrial areas like the rand in South Africa are densely populated. But the areas with poor economic base have low population since people avoid settling in those areas.
- Political Factors: Areas with political stability and peace attract population but where there is political instability tend to avoid. These areas face depopulation due to conflicts like in Sudan, Somalia, and Democratic Republic of Congo. Also the policies especially on resettlement schemes so as to solve the problem of overpopulation influence population distribution in the country.
For example the government can decide to establish new settlement areas and force people from the overpopulated areas to come and settle. Also the establishment of colonial rule like in Tanzania led to the concentration of people in the most productive areas leading to low population in other areas.
- Transport and Communication: Areas which are served with transport and communication attract high population since they can transport their goods to the market areas. But areas which are poorly served with transport and communication like Western parts of South Africa and China have low population. These areas are remote and hence are not accessible.
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION (STUDY CASES)
Population Size, Composition and Distribution
Since independence, Tanzania has conducted four censuses in 1967, 1978, 1988, and 2002; these have been the main source of population data. These censuses have indicated that the population of Tanzania increased from 12.3 million in 1967 to 17.5 million in 1978 and reached 23.1 million in 1988, also to about 35 million in 2002.
During this period, the population growth rate was estimated at an average of 3.2 per annum during the period between 1978 and declined to an average of 2.8 per annum between 1967 and 1978 and declined to an average of 2002 percent per annum between 1967 and 1978 and declined to an average of 2.8 per annum during the period between 1978 and 1988.
The 1988 and 2002 censuses indicate that there is a variation between the regions, for example at a regional level the estimated annual growth rates ranged from 1.4 percent (Mtwara) to 4.8 percent (Dar es Salaam.)
Tanzania has a young population. According to the 1988 Population census, about 47 percent of the population is aged below 15 years, and 4 percent aged 65 years and above. The 2002 census also showed that the young are more than the old. This youthful age structure entails a larger population growth in the future, as these young people move into their reproductive life irrespective of whether fertility declines or not.
Tanzania’s labor force, defined as the economically active persons in the 15 to 64 years age group, has been growing steadily since 1960. From 1960 to 1993 for instance, the average annual growth rate of the country’s labor force was 2.8 percent and it is projected that during the coming years, it will grow to 3.0 percent.
Tanzania’s economically active population was estimated to have risen from 7.8 million in 1978 to 11.3 million in 1990. The 1990/91 Labor Force Survey (LFS) showed that out of an estimated labor force of 11.3 million, males and females constituted 49.8 and 50.2 percent respectively.
An important feature of the population profile is its spatial distribution over the national territory and its rural – urban migration patterns and trends. The analysis of population distribution by district carried out on the basis of the 1967, 1978, 1988 and 2002 census results indicate that about two – thirds of the population distribution ranges between 4 persons per square kilometer as observed in Liwale district to 383 persons per sq. Km. observed in Chakechake and 282 found along the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro. About 79 percent of Tanzanians still live in rural areas (majority of whom are women) though the urban population has been growing at a rapid rate of more than 5 percent per annum over the past three decades.
Components of Population Growth
The main components of population growth in any country are mortality, fertility and net migration. In Tanzania, fertility and mortality are the most important factors influencing population growth at national level. Previous censuses have shown that net migration component has been negligible.
Mortality rate has declined substantially in Tanzania over the decades. The main contributing factors to the decline are improved access to health care and better environmental sanitation. The crude death rate (CDR) is estimated to have environmental sanitation.
The crude death rate (CDR) is estimated to have fallen from about 22 per thousand in 1967 to 15 in 1988. Infant mortality rate (IMR) per 1000 live births is estimated to have declined from 170 (1967) to 115 in 1988 and then to 88 in 1996 (TDHS, 1996). In the same period, the less than five mortality rate per thousand live births, declined from 260 to 137.
The declining mortality is reflected in the rising life expectancy at birth from a level of about 40 years in 1967 to about 50 years in 1988. Inspite of this decline, mortality still remains high by world standards. Maternal mortality rate (MMR) is still high. The 1996 TDHS shows that the MMR is estimated at 529 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births.
The fertility rate in Tanzania is estimated to have declined slightly over the past decade. At 1996 fertility level, a Tanzanian woman will give birth to an average of 5.8 children during her child – bearing years. This implies that the total fertility rate (TFR) has declined from 6.4 (1988) to 5.8 (TDHS, 1996) births per woman with significant regional and educational differences.
For example in 1996, Mainland Tanzania recorded 6.3 and 4.1 births per woman in rural and urban areas respectively. Differences related to education are inversely much wider. Fertility rate for women with no education is 6.4, with primary education 5.4 and with secondary and higher education 3.2 (TDHS, 1996).
High fertility level observed in Tanzania is an outcome of a number of factors including:–
- Early and nearly universal marriage for women. For example, the median age at first marriage for women aged 25 – 49 is 18 years and by the age of 20, over 67 percent have married at least once (TDHS, 1996). The 1971 Marriage Act stipulates a legal minimum age at marriage of 15 years for females and 18 for males; and
- The absence of effective fertility regulation within marriage: For example, the contraceptive prevalence rate is currently estimated at 16 percent among women aged 15 – 49.
Other underlying factors contributing towards high fertility and rooted in the socio – cultural value system include:-
Value of children as a source of domestic and agricultural labor and old – age economic and social security for parents.
Male child preference; This is perpetuated by men.
Low social and educational status of women in society which prevent them from taking decision on their fertility and use of family planning services
Large age differentials between spouses which constrain communication on issues related to reproductive health.
Rural – urban migration has been a main feature of migration in Tanzania for many years. The increase in rural –urban migration has led to increasing rate of urbanization, especially in major urban centers like Dar es Salaam, Mbeya, Mwanza, and Arusha. The proportion if population living in urban areas increased from 5 percent in 1967 to 13 in 1978 and 21 percent in 1988. Between 1978 and 1988, the urban population for Tanzania increased by 53 percent. These are variations alone contained about 25 percent of the total urban population in 1988.
The unprecedented migration of people from rural areas increase the burden on already over- loaded public services and social infrastructure especially in the squatter areas, which stimulate the flourishment of communicable diseases like tuberculosis, cholera and malaria. Rural –rural migration also contributes to the regional and district level variations in terms of population pressure over resources. These variations are demonstrated by differences in population densities between districts, wards and villages. The general observation is that population increase has not been in line with the land area available for human use.
Population and Development Interrelationships
Rapid population growth is one of the primary obstacles to development.
In the short run, its effects may appear marginal, but it sets into motion a cumulative process whose adverse impact on various facets of development might turn out to be very significant over the medium to long term. This is because population factors impinge on development and the welfare of individuals, families, communities at the micro level and at the district, regional and the national level as whole at the macro level. The effects and responses to population pressure interact at all these levels.
Rapid population growth tends to increase outlays on consumption, drawing resources away from saving for productive investment and therefore tends to retard growth in national output through slow capital formation. The strains caused by rapid population growth are felt most acutely and visibly in the public budgets for health, education and other human resources development sectors. Food requirements for the rapidly growing population also mean that of the gains from increased agricultural production are eroded.
Adverse economic effects due to rapid population growth are shown explicitly by looking at projection of future population and the costs of providing social services. If the 1978 – 1988 inter – sensual population growth of 2.8 percent per annum does not decline, then costs for the provision of health services will rise annually but without improvement in either the quality or coverage of the current services.
Population and development influence one another. The influence may be positive or negative depending on other mentioned demographic factors interact and create the following problems:-
The rapid growing young population demand increasing expenditure directed to social services such as education, health and water.
The rapidly growing labor force demands heavy investments inhuman resource development as well as development strategies which ensure future job creation opportunities;
Rapid population growth in the context of poverty reduces the possibility of attaining sustainable economic growth.
GEOGRAPHY FORM SIX:POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
NIGERIA
In 1991 population was estimated to be 116,926,000 and population density of 127 persons/km2 in which 65% live in urban areas, and 35% live in rural areas. The population distribution of Nigeria is uneven such that there are areas with high population densities and areas with sparse population density.
The variation has been contributed by:-
- Physical Factors
(i) The variation in climate such that some areas have favorable conditions. Also the nature of climate has influenced the distribution of population depending on the nature of the activities. In the North pastoralism dominates and some irrigation takes place while in the South crop production like, oil palm, takes place. Where the rains are not adequate like in the middle belt Population is also low.
(ii)Soil variation since some areas have good soils, which can support agricultural production while others are having poor soils like the middle belt.
(iii)Mineral deposits such that more people are found in the areas mining takes place unlike the areas which are poor of resources.
(iv) Water Supply also has influenced the population distribution. There are many people near the river valleys due to the supply of water for irrigation and for pastoralism especially in the north. The existence of swamps especially in the Niger delta has led to sparse population.
- Biotic Factors
(i) Vegetation also influences population distribution in the country. For example where there are mangrove swamps like in the Niger delta people are discouraged to settle.
(ii)Some areas are infested with tsetse flies like in the middle belt have sparse population while areas which are free of tsetse flies and diseases encourage high population density.
3 Human Factors
(i) Political factors: Nigeria is the country of political instability since there are frequent civil wars. So, there have led to some people keep on moving from some places with conflicts to places which are at least having peace. During the wars many people die.
Also, recently the government has encouraged a wider spread of settlement by developing transport systems, mining centers, extending power supplies and agricultural activities in the under populated areas (which can still support more population).
(ii) Presence of towns also attracts many people; hence there is high population in towns compared to rural areas. This has been due to rural – urban migration. They go to towns since they expect obtaining job in the industries and other economic sectors. Also in towns they expect to get some social amenities like cinema, educational services, medical services etc, which lack in the rural areas.
(iii) Transport and communication has influenced population distribution in Nigeria. There is high population where transport and communication services are available. For example along the railways, roads and around the ports.
(iv) Historical factors have also influenced population distribution in Nigeria. For example the middle belt has been affected by slave raiding during the Trans – Atlantic slave trade to depopulation and hence how densities of population in the areas, apart from other factors like poor soils.
(v)Tribalism (ethnicity has also affected population distribution in Nigeria). Each state is dominated by one tribe (ethnic’ group) such that these groups are always in conflict leading to political instability. For example the Ibo occupy the South East, where there are cities of Ibadan, Lagos, Oyo and Oshogbo. The Haussa are in the north in the towns of Kano, Maiduguri and Sokoto. The Yoruba occupy the South West where there cocoa farms.
(vi) Religious factors also have contributed to the nature of population distribution in the country. For example Muslims are concentrated more in the north while most of the Christians are in the South. Such religious diversity has also contributed to the existing civil wars in Nigeria.
Diagram (Map):-
People per square Km
KEY:
i) Tabora, Rukwa, Lindi, Ruvuma. (9-16)
ii) Singida, Mbeya, Iringa, Morogoro, Pwani (15-30)
iii) Mtwara, Tanga, Dodoma, Mara, Kagera, Shinyanga, Mwanza (30-80)
iv) Kilimanjaro (80-250)
v) Pemba (250-300)
vi) Dar es Salaam (300-980)
Population Distribution/Density of Tanzania
EXAMPLES OF VARIATION IN POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN NIGERIA
High population density is found in areas where climate, soils, and which relief (terrain) are favorable) like The South Western Nigeria which has highly urbanized cocoa lands of Yoruba, Southeast Nigeria where there is a palm belt and industries in Iboland, North Central Nigeria in the Haussa land where cotton and groundnuts are grown. These areas have the density ranging from 200 people per square kilometer to 500 people per square kilometer.2. Moderate population density is found in areas fringing the densely populated areas especially on the more marginal lands. These are better served by roads, railways, and river transport.
Sparse population density is found in areas like Bornu state in the North eastern states which the climate is driest in the country, the middle belt area where the soil poor (laterite soil) and infested with tse tse flies and the Niger delta where the climate is hot and humid with swamps and mangrove forest which make the area unsuitable for human settlement
Diagram (Map)
CHINA
In 1989 population was estimated to be 1,097, 432,000 in which population density was 115 persons / km2. 21% of the population lives in urban areas and 79% in rural areas.
GREAT BRITAIN
In 1989 population was estimated to be 56,658,000 in which population density was 232/km2. With 92% livings in urban areas while the remaining 8% in rural areas.
POPULATION DATA
Refers to the information pertaining to population concerning some economic, social and demographic matter
Sources of Population Data:-
There are divided into primary and secondary data sources.
Primary (Traditional) Sources:-
Periodic national censuses.
Vital registration systems which deal with vital events like births, deaths, marriages, divorces and migrations.
Sample surveys and inquiries.
Secondary Sources of Population Data:-
There are the most widely used sources of population data. They include tall types, published reports, unpublished reports and statistical abstracts.
VITAL REGISTRATION OF PERSONS:-
This involves the registration of events like births, deaths marriages. This is a basic source of data of a population. The registration of births is used to calculate the birth rate of a country. It is also used to determine the number of persons added to a community over a period. Such figures are lacking in rural areas because numerous births are not registered. Registration of births is common in towns because children are mainly born in hospitals and birth certificates are demanded on registering children in schools.
Deaths of babies are used to calculate infant mortality rates. The registration of all deaths assists in determining the number of people that are departing the population in relation to the births and this helps in economic planning. The registration of newly married couples assists in estimating the number of parents in a country. Registration of refugees is vital in knowing the rate of their inflow into a country.
In most developed countries vital registration systems are quite developed but in developing countries like in East they are not yet well developed. However, at present most population data for the majority countries are obtained from censuses, which are usually conducted at ten – year intervals.
CENSUS
This is a process of collecting, compiling and publishing demographic, economic and social data pertaining to a specified time or times to all persons in a country or delieated territory.
Characteristics of Censuses
Censuses have the following characteristics:
Universality within a specified territory: Ideally for the census to be universal it must cover the whole territory or country and all people residing in the country or including those who are absent if it is dejure census. Whenever this proportional of the population that has been covered. But there is not any country that covers all people since many people tend to be absent and some are reluctant to give information etc.
Periodicity: Regular periodicity or interval is highly necessary in censuses. Hence censuses are taken at certain interval like after every ten years etc. Specified interval helps to analyze the data in a more dimensional way. Also UN recommends that censuses should be taken at regular intervals in order to get comparable information with a fixed sequence. For example in Tanzania censuses were taken at an interval of ten years from 1948, 1957, 1967, 1978, 1988. The subsequent was expected to take place in 1998 but it took place in 2002. The delay was due to financial constraints.
Specificity: They are for a certain country, territory or category of people in the country and for certain purpose like for political or economic planning.
All persons (Individual Enumeration): They involve counting of the number of persons in certain specified country or territory and every individual to be listed separately together with their personal characteristics.
Simultaneity: They take place at the same specified time throughout the country or territory. This helps in producing comparative and logical censuses. E.g. in Tanzania the 1967, 1978, 1988 censuses were assumed to be taken on the 26/27 date midnight of August. More often enumeration sometimes does not need to be completed on the same date but the official time remains the midnight. Nonetheless, the more the time is used in enumeration the more difficult it becomes to avoid omissions of enumerations.
Census is costly since they need resources and time in enumerating the population.
Types of Census
These can be categorized either according to approach of undertaking the census or according to the time interval with which the censuses are conducted in the country or territory.
According to Approach:
A Census can be either de jure or de facto.
De jure census is the one in which the people are counted according to their usual place of residence where only permanent members of household are counted. The weakness of this type is that it regards people as if they are static while they are dynamic.
De facto census is the one in which the people are counter wherever they are found on the day of enumeration, that is, all people who stayed in the household for the night are counted.
Census, therefore, gives a population profile. From census data the main characteristics of population as well as the level of socio – economic development of countries are revealed.
According to the Time Interval:
Quinquennial census refers to the census carried out after every five years, while decennial census is the type of census carried out after every ten years.
The Objectives of Modern Censuses:-
To provide a complete account of all members of a country by age and sex. The age and sex distributions are so important for socio – economic planning which help in estimating births, deaths, and growth rates.
To obtain the detailed statistics on the size, nature and distribution of the labor force. This concerns the economically active people in the population in terms of industrial activities, employment status, skills and levels of specialization.
To determine the literacy and illiteracy rates of the population in the relevant age groups. This provides information on the distribution of the literate population in different educational and technical fields and the scientific and the technical capacity of manpower.
To provide social and economic information on household and housing conditions such as occupancy, type of ownership and availability of household facilities.
To provide the complete picture of all places and persons, villages, wards and households for the whole country. Such picture is useful in planning development projects and in organizing nationwide and other sample surveys.
Hence, population data is used for facilitating national planning of public programs such as determining the number of school places and teachers, location of hospitals and water sources and other service center, and the employment of the population.
Limitations of Censuses
Expenses: Censuses are very expensive since they involve training of manpower, transport, food and other operations for their undertakings.
There are problems of omissions of some of the members especially those who tend to be absent during counting and poor coverage, Enumeration becomes a big problem where the society has members who are nomadic or semi – nomadic.
There are problems of misreporting especially of ages and underestimations of some of the aspects of population characteristics.
These are the errors, which make censuses fail to depict the true picture of the population.
Population data is submitted so late to the Bureau of Statistics:-
Transport problems and remoteness limit the process of enumerating the members of the country. Some places are so remote that the personnel are discouraged from going of those areas.
Political factors can cause problems in counting the people especially where there are ethnic groups, which are conflicting like in Rwanda and Burundi.
Poor framing of questions creates fear among the individuals who in turn fail to provide true information about their families.
Low literacy levels and poor co-ordination limit the processes of undertaking censuses.
Censuses tend to be inaccurate because of too much estimation, which end up giving vague information. Also, vagueness comes about when the data are sent to the demographic headquarters while there occurred a lot of changes in population like number of people as well as sex- ratio.
SAMPLE SURVEYS AND INQUIRIES
In the absence of adequate capital to undertake censuses, some countries conduct national sample survey based on representative samples of the total population to secure desired information. Sample surveys are fairly representative because they seek the percentages of, for example, men, women, youth, farmers and doctors in a population.
A sample survey involves a small number of people and it is therefore possible to use more detailed questionnaire and interviews that offer more accurate information. Sample surveys are usually carried out to provide information on various topics, e.g. fertility and people’s attitudes to family planning, breast – feeding, as well as on the demographic and health situation of a country. These are regularly carried out by the country’s bureau of statistics. Sample surveys are the cheapest sources of population data.
4.2 POPULATION (DEMOGRAPHIC) STRUCTURE
Population structure refers to a composition in terms of proportion of people according to certain status categories such as age, sex, educational level, marital status, labor force (skilled or unskilled), ethnic status, household characteristics, health, citizenship, rural or urban category as well as economic status.
Age – sex structure is commonly used in studying the population structure of a country. Population structure is influenced by the birth rates, death rates, marriage status and rates, incident of migration, structure of the labor force, level of education, economic level and political aspects.
Representing Age – sex Structure:-
Age-sex structure is represented by diagrams known as population pyramids. Long term changes in fertility and mortality as well as lesser influences, such as persistent in – or out – migration, wars, and epidemics are reflected in their shape. Model pyramids provide guidelines against which actual population may be judged.
Importance of Age – sex Pyramids (or Population structure):-
By studying the population pyramids, it is possible to interpret the population characteristics of any country. They will reflect:
Population size of the country.
Age – sex proportion.
Dependency ratio which can be high or low.
Level of economic development whether more advanced or less developed.
Fertility and death rates.
Population growth rate whether high or low or stationary.
Life expectancy, which can be either high or low.
Effects of natural disasters like wars, diseases and migration.
They also help in determining the country’s future demographic trend and possible outcomes or problems.
Can help in the formulation of population policy like family planning in case it learnt that there are so many children who are born each year while the economic is poor.
It can facilitate the planning process for social and economic development. For example the government can plan for the type and range of distribution of welfare services needed for the population.
It can influence the patterns of purchasing and consumption, the size and characteristics of the labor force.
MODEL AGE – SEX PYRAMIDS
Stationary Pyramid
This has straight sides demonstrating stable fertility and mortality over a long period of time. Death rate is high because of poor living conditions and poor technology. Birth rate is also high because of low education, high demand for children, polygamy etc. Hence the rate of population growth (BR – DR) is very low.
Progressive or Expansive Pyramid:-
These are bell- shaped (with concave sides). The base of the pyramid is wider to indicate that the proportional of children is higher than any other population category. Hence there is high dependency ratio, low life expectancy, high birth rate and death rate (infant mortality rate). As children are not productive the development is low and the government’s budget has to be spent on education for the children.
This structure is a characteristic of many African countries like Kenya and Tanzania.
Late Expansive Pyramid:-
The pyramid has convex sides showing that the death rates have begun to decline due to improved standard of living and technology followed by family planning and advancement in education. Population growth rate is declining.
The narrow base shows that the birth rates are declining. The middle portion bulges to indicate that more people live to middle age and even to older ages and hence the life expectancy has increased. Argentina is under this stage.
Diagram:-
Regressive (Contractive) Pyramid:-
The base is very narrow because of low proportion of children. This has been due to low birth rate as a result of very strict birth control, high level of education, advanced economy and social awareness, good food and care. This is the model for countries with high economic development level like Sweden, UK and Japan.
The population growth in these countries is very low:-
The post reproductive group is in a larger proportion due to high life expectancy, low birth rate, low infant mortality rate and low death rate.
There is a problem of aging of the population, which in turn leads to the problems of the increase in the dependency ration.
GEOGRAPHY FORM SIX:POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Diagram
STUDY CASES
Population Trend in Tanzania
Population of Tanzania tripled from 7.7 million in 1948 to 23.1 million in 1988. By 1984 population estimate were about 21,710,000 from 17,512,610 people according to the census of 1978. Between 1967 -1978 the population increased by 5.2 million people. This was a 42.2% increase within 11 years. And this represents annual growth 3.2%.
Between 1978 -1988 the annual population growth rate was 2.8%. On the basis of this growth rate the population of Tanzania was projected to be about 33 million by the year 2000. All in all, according to 2002 census, the population is about 35 million. t can therefore be concluded that population in Tanzania is rapid and this has some impacts on resources as follows:-
Land fragmentation due to population pressure like in Kilimanjaro fragmented and cannot allow mechanization or large – scale cultivation.
Over utilization of resources like overfishing leasing to scarcity of fish, deforestation due to cutting of vegetation, exhaustion of minerals due to excessive mining and loss of wild animals. Deforestation has led to erosion in some areas. Land problems have been accelerated by the need for more food, housing requirement and recreational amenities.
Food shortage due to the fact that population growth is such much rapid that it does not keep pace with the level of capital investment in agriculture which is characterized with low level of technology.
Following the food shortage Tanzania has been forced to incur some costs on importing food, E.g. importation of maize, wheat and rice.
Rapid population growth has increased the dependency ration in the country. As a result more efforts are concentrated on meeting some immediate needs of the young population rather than investing in fundamental economic sectors.
Rapid population growth has led to stress on facilities like housing, water supply, electricity, health care and communication services.
Scarcity of land in different places especially in rural areas has forced people to migrate to towns or other places. Coupled with migration aspect some of the people have been pushed to marginal lands where production has been low.
Rapid population growth has led to unemployment.
TANZANIA’S RESPONSE
As a result of unemployment and mushrooming number of loiterers Tanzania put in place the Human Resource Deployment program (Nguvu Kazi) 1983, the control of government expenditure (Kubana matumizi) programs (Early 1980’s) in order to avoid the over use of resources and services.
Establishment of some resettlement schemes in Arusha China and some parts of Tanga and Morogoro. This was undertaken for the sake of reducing a number of people in the areas, which were having high density.
Does Tanzania have some Population Pressure?
What is Population Pressure?
It is a situation in which the number of population is greater than the carrying capacity of the land and its resources. In this case the resources are fewer than the number of people and hence cannot satisfy the needs of the people in that particles .
Population pressure is related to overpopulation. At a national level, Tanzania seems to have no population pressure. This is the case when one relates the available area of land to the population of the country at large.
Nonetheless population pressure can be said to exist only at local levels such as family or regional level. For example the Chagga land has got a population pressure unlike other parts of central Tanzania, which are still under populated. Rufiji basin is also under populated and can support more population.
Therefore population pressure in Tanzania is not all that much a problem since it can be solved. The success can be achieved once Tanzania embarks on strategic development of agricultural by tapping the potential land, which is lying idle like Rufiji basin.
There should be a great focus on investing in the rural areas by opening up the virgin land and establishing irrigation schemes so as to encourage people to settle in rural areas rather than flooding the urban areas.
Factors for Population Pressure Different places:-
Population pressure can be brought about by the following factors:
Fertility of soil, which attracts people in certain area. People go to settle in those areas for carrying out agricultural activities. Examples are the Netherlands and the Southern slopes of the Kilimanjaro Mountain.
Availability of minerals in certain area, which also attracts a big number of people.
Healthy climatic conditions especially in the highland areas where there is cool with low diseases incidence.
Availability of water solders and constant supply of water like along the river banks of the Nile valley.
High growth rate as a result of high fertility or birth rates and immigration.
Cultural aspects like land inheritance and tenure can lead to population pressure. Some tribes continue staying in areas that belonged to the forefathers and are continue staying in areas that belonging to the forefathers and are reluctant to shift to other places.
Scarcity of arable land can make people concentrate on the available small piece of land to carry out their agricultural activities
Poor policy on population control. The policy has control of population growth and distribution as well as land ownership. But where the policy is poor there occurs population pressure problems.
Impacts of Population Pressure:-
It leads to inadequacy in social services like medicine and education opportunities as well as water supplies.
It leads to unemployment due to the excessive number of people who are more than the available economic sectors.
It can cause deforestation since people clear vegetation for establishing settlement or cultivation.
It can lead to mineral exhaustion as a result of over exploitation where mineral deposits are small.
Population can also cause land degradation especially soil erosion after clearing vegetation.
There can occur on outbreak of diseases due to prostitution and environmental pollution like water and air pollution.
It can restrict or hamper the development of industries by posing the locational problems. When there are so many people becomes problematic to locate heavy industries in a particular area.
Population pressure leads to the problems of poor housing such that many people can share one room. This can turn facilitate the spread of contagious diseases.
Unemployment caused by population pressure can lead to the prevalence of crimes and increase in prostitution.
Decline of resources leads to the occurrence of poverty in a particular place or country.
Cultural deterioration also can take place in the areas with population pressure.
What should be done?
There should be family planning programs focusing on birth control.
The government should establish resettlement schemes which can lead to the shifting of people from the overpopulate areas to the under – populated areas like Rufiji basin and central parts of Tanzania.
Establishing irrigation schemes, which can attract people from the over – populated areas.
Establishing land tenure system so that people can concentrate on their own pieces of land rather than migrating from place to place and lead to the occurrence of population pressure in the destination areas.
Providing profound and viable ‘education to the people so as to resign them from cultural aspects, which force them to continue reproducing, and remaining in the same place inherited from the forefathers.
Establishing other economic activities rather than depending on agricultural. People should engage themselves in other activities like trade and fishing.
4.3 POPULATION DYNAMICS AND QUALITY OF LIFE
Population dynamic refers to the changes in population over time. Populations are dynamic, that is their numbers, and distributions, structure and movement (migration) constantly change over time and space. The components of migration change include:
- Natural change as result of births and deaths.
- Migration change as a result people moving in or away.
Population change is an example of an open system, where there are inputs, processes and outputs:-
- Inputs include: births and immigration.
- Processes include:
(a) Natural change.
(b) Migration
(c) Total population
- Out puts include deaths and emigration.
The total population of an area is the balance between the two forces of change: Natural change and artificial change (migration). Natural increase or annual growth rate is the difference between the two forces of change: Natural change and artificial change (migration).
Natural increase or annual growth rate is the difference between birth rates and death rates. The rate of the Natural increase is the difference between crude Birth Rate (CBR) and Crude Death Rate (CDR). It is obtained by the formula (Natural growth rate CBR – CDR=Migration) and it can be expressed as a percentage.
The rate of natural increase (RNI) for Africa is 3.0 which are higher than the world average of 1.7. For other selected regions RNI is as follows: Asia (1.8), North America (0.7) and Europe (0.2). This means that population in Africa is growing at a higher rate than that of the other continents.
Even the regional growth of population varies e.g. It is highest in West Africa (3.3) and the lowest in Central Africa, with 2.0. Countries with highest Natural increase are Kenya (4.1), Libya (3.6) and Algeria (2.9) each, while those with the lowest are Reunion (1.2), Cape Verde (1.3) and Mauritius (1.5).
High Natural increase rates are due to lowering of child mortality, although other factors such as improved health services also extend the average life expectancy.
Fertility and Birth Rates:-
These also account for population dynamics. Fertility is the occurrence of live births in a population. It is measured by Crude Birth rate (CBR) which is calculated by taking the total number of live births divided by the total population in a given year then multiplied by 1000 or 100.
It is called Crude Birth Rate because it includes all ages and both sexes in the development and attempt has been made to reach women at risk. Its weakness is that it is too general and hence in some respects it is not a good measure of fertility. Africa has the highest levels in the world compared to other selected regions, it has a CBR of 43 per thousand, whereas North America has 13, Asia has 26 and Europe has 12 per thousand.
The world average CBR is 26 per thousand, while Southern Africa has 31 per thousand. Western Africa has the highest fertility rate in the world. Normally the birth rate ranges from 10% in developed countries and 50% in the developing countries. In calculations the mid year is used since the population will have been considerably exposed to mortality and hence one can avoid underestimation or over estimation.
Why high fertility rate?
Improved health measures and medical services.
The percentage of women married at younger age is higher in the Sub – Saharan Africa compared to the Northern Africa.
Some communities in Africa recognize high fertility as an important requirement for a successful family. Moreover, they consider having many children as a potential source of labour and social security for their aged parents.
Birth Rates / Fertility Rates:-
Birth Rate is the number of births per 1000 of the population. Birth Rate is a measure of fertility. Physiological capacity of a woman to conceive and given birth to a child, regardless of whether is a live birth or a still birth is called Fecundity.
Lack of fecundity is called infecundity or sterility. Infertility on the other hand, refers to the inability of a woman to bear a child and this includes those who cannot give a live birth to a live baby. Infertility can be primary or secondary.
Primary infertility is also referred to as involuntary childlessness. Secondary infertility can also involuntary. For instance when a woman has had two children and is now unable to have more due to biological or health factors. It is called secondary since it is caused by a second factor after the previous births.
Mortality Rate and Death Rates
Mortality rate is the occurrence of deaths in a population. It’s one of the major causes of change in the population size. Mortality is measured in terms of Crude Death Rates (CDR), which refers to the number of deaths per year per 1000 of the population.
Crude death rate is very high in Africa. In the period between 1990- 1995 the average Crude Death Rate (CRD) was 13 per 1000 against the world average of 9 per 1000. In the same period the average CRD of Asia was 8 per 1000 and Europe was 10 per 1000. In Africa most countries have the CRD between 6 per 1000 to 21 per 1000, except in the small Islands such as Reunton, Mauritius the Seychelles and Cape Verde where the CRD is less than 6 per 1000.
In general, mortality rate is declining. This trend is obvious in towns and cities where health facilities are better and living standards are higher than in the rural areas.
Hence
Birth rates and death rates account for either the increase or decrease in population respectively. High birth rates and low death rates contribute to the population growth. Generally, birth rates in the world declining as more and more people are practicing birth control. Wealth and education are the best contraceptives; the richer and better – educated people have fewer children.
General Fertility Rate (GFR)
Which refers to a number of live births in a specified period (year) divided by the average number of women with child bearing age (15 – 49) expressed per 1000 is taken to be a more refined rate than the Crude birth Rate because it is applied to consideration women at risk by giving birth and in so doing it eliminates cost of distortions caused by variations in age structure.
However, it is still not such refined measure because it takes very
little account of age patterns of marriage or patterns of fertility. To
eliminate this limitation, more refined measure is used which is the General Marital Fertility Rate (GMFR).
In this case married women are used because they are actually exposed to giving birth.
Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
It’s the number of live births occurring to women of a particular age group per year expressed per 1000 women.
NB:
Despite the declining trend of birth rates at a global level, the global population is ever increasing due to the following reasons:-
Economic Factors: In LEDC’s most of the people recognize that children can be a source of labor in the farms, small trades for earning money, for begging and providing support to the elderly parents.
Soil Factors:-
(i) Little use of birth control in LEDC’s due to low education or ignorance and negligence.
(ii) Some tribes take it as a sign of prestige such that having 6 to 10 children in a family is normal.
(iii) Early marriages: Traditional or religious attitudes may militate against change or may make conditions worse. Birth control is forbidden by the religious institutions like the Catholic Church which condemns the modern methods of birth control like the use of condoms.
In rural areas due to low level of education the people are conservative and hence rigid in accepting the new methods of family planning.
Political Factors: Government failing to finance family planning programs because of poor economic levels.
POPULATION MIGRATION
(Population Movement)
Population migration refers to the movement of people from one place to another, which can involve either temporary or permanent change of residence.
It can also involve seasonal movements like trans humance in the Alps and Himalayan areas or daily movement like people commuting from urbanized villages to city centers for business or jobs in the offices and studies.
Migration affects population distribution and population structure.
Why People Migrate?
Migration can occur due to the influence of either PUSH factors or PULL factors.
Push factors are the factors that force people or a person to move out of a place to another place. The people or person in this movement might not have been satisfied with the conditions prevailing in certain place. Pull factors are the factors that attract people into a place. Pull and push factors include physical, economic, social, political, and biological.
GEOGRAPHY FORM SIX:POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Physical Factors
Climate
Good climate like having enough rains, moderate temperature
attract people into a place while poor climatic conditions like shortage
of rain fall, extremely high temperatures and extremely low temperature
force people away or do not attract people into a place. E.g. people
cannot be attracted to live in very cold region like very high mountain
areas of Himalaya and Kilimanjaro.
Edaphic (soil) factors: Areas with good soils attract people for example the villages of the Ganges River, Yang tse Kiang, Hwang HO and the Nile have attracted people while areas with poor soils force people away from a place.
Relief: The areas, which are free from floods like highlands, attract people while the areas, which experience floods like lowlands force people away. Also, people go to places with gentle slopes for easy cultivation and leave place with steep slope since they are prone to erosion.
Presence of natural resources like mineral attract migrants like the rand in South Africa while the exhaustion of mineral or absence of minerals force people away from those places.
Natural hazards like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods and storms, etc people away from a place while the absence of these natural hazards attracts people to a certain place.
Biological Factors:
The area which is free from diseases and pests attracts people but where pests and diseases are predominant people move away to other place. For example there are common movements of people from the central parts of Tanzania due to tse-tse fly infestation of other with healthy conditions like the southern highlands of Tanzania, etc.
People, especially farmers, can migrate from areas, which have been invaded by destructive weeds to areas, which are not highly affected by destructive weeds.
Economic Factors:-
Lack of income opportunities can force people out of the place to other areas while availability of income opportunities attracts people. This is manifested by rural – urban migration. For example industries in towns attract people from rural areas to urban centers.
Social Factors:-
1.The presence of relatives in certain place can attract people into a place. One can decide to go to certain place because of the presence of the brothers, uncles, sisters, etc.
2. Lack of social amenities in certain place can force people make people move away while the presence of social amenities attract people into a place.
For example, availability of electricity, medical services, transport and entertainment attract people in towns and absence of these aspects in the rural areas forces them out of villages to urban areas.
3. Social conflicts, enmity, witchcraft etc force people away from a place.
4. Overpopulation forces people move a place to other areas, which are not overpopulated while under population in areas, which are having potential resource, can attract people.
Political Stability:
Where there is peace due to stable political system people are attracted to move into those places while places with political problems force people away.
For example, people move away from areas with civil wars like Rwanda and Burundi areas with peace like Tanzania. Also, tourists like visiting the countries, which are peaceful and avoid the countries, which are full of political fracas or turmoil.
Also, the government can encourage people to the settlement schemes so as to solve the problems of overpopulation or under population or under utilization of resources.
Characteristics of Migration
Migration is Selective
This means that in certain circumstances and at certain times particular persons or groups are more likely to migrate than others. Such migration selectivity is known as differential migration.
Important differentials are age, gender and social status:
In terms of age: Young people between 20 to 34 are more mobile due to economic reasons. Most of these move to urban areas in search of economic opportunities. Old people are more involved in urban- rural migration due to retirement.
In terms of gender: Males are more mobile at longer distances while females are more mobile at short distances. In rural urban migration young males are more involved than young females.
In terms of social and economic status: Rural dwellers are more mobile than urban dwellers due to economic differences between these categories of people. Nomadic pastoralism are more mobile than sedentary pastoralism. The rich can travel longer distances internationally and more frequently involving high costs while poor people travel shorter distances due to economic capacity.
Also, people who move as refugees are those who have experienced problems like floods, earthquake, wars, volcanic eruptions etc. Likewise some move as students, researchers, traders etc at different times and circumstances. Hence, not all people move at the same time. It is certain category of people who move at a particular time depending on certain obtaining circumstance. Therefore, it suffices to justify that migration is selective.
Most of migrants are poor since they have been forced to move to other place in search of economic opportunities.
Migration occurs in stages. This means that one short movement from one place leaves a vacuum to be filled by another short movement of population from beyond. In this way population progresses in waves (stages) towards the eventual goal.
Migration is two-way process since each movement in one direction has a compensatory movement in the opposite direction.
During migration the number of persons going a given distance is directly proportional to the number of opportunities (pull factors) and inversely proportional to the number of intervening factors: if no then it is most likely that no one will move to that place.
Most migrants travel shorter distances and the number decreases as the distance increases, so it illustrates distance decay.
Classification of Migration
Classification of migration is based on several criteria.
Criteria Type of Migration
Boundary Internal Migration, which involves the movement within the country and can be categorized into out-migration and in-migration. This can be rural-urban, urban-rural, rural – rural and urban – urban migration. External (international) migration, which involves people moving from one country to another country like labor migration from Mozambique, Malawi to South Africa in the mining areas; from Italy to Switzerland; nomads from one country to another country like the Maasai from Tanzania to Kenya.
Duration: Temporary migration like students going for studies outside the country or to other place within the country, trans humance which is a seasonal movement of farmers with their animals etc. Permanent migration which involves the total change of residence from one place to another place like people going to urban areas from rural areas, or going to rural areas from urban areas etc. It can be either international or local migration.
Volition (Preference): Voluntary migration, which is caused by someone’s desire to move from one place to another place for example skilled laborers going to another countries for better salaries; to open new areas, retiring to warmer climatic conditions and going to town for better social amenities like medical services, schools, entertainment, commuting to job places in town from villages etc. Forced migration due to political conflicts like refugees moving from Rwanda to Tanzania, slave trade like movement of African to Americas, overpopulation and environmental problems.
Government Plans: Planned migration due to the attempt by the government to reduce uneven development and solve the problem of overpopulation as well as to speed up the development of people like the establishment of Ujamaa villages in Tanzania and resettlement schemes adopted in different parts of the world for solving the problem of overpopulation and opening up the areas which were lying idle.
International Migration
It is a Migration that involves the movement of the people from one country to another. It can be permanent or temporary (short term). If one has been going to certain country so sequentially it is called chain migration.
Short term migration has increased due to expansion of tourism, and millions of holiday makers, especially North America, Japan and Europe, now spend holidays abroad. The movement from the country is called emigration while the movement into the country is called immigration.
International migration can be voluntary like job seekers such as
doctors and nurses going to USA from Britain, students going for further
studies and tourists.
Involuntary international migration includes aspects like:
Movement of slaves from Africa to North and South America.
Movement from refugees from Rwanda to other neighboring countries following the genocide in 1994, refugees from Afghanistan to Pakistan following the American attack on terrorism in 2001. Fleeing of a large number from Ethiopia due to famine.
Hence, international migration can be caused by economic, political, religious, cultural, and environmental factors.
Internal Migration:
It’s the movement from one place to another place within the individual country. Distinction can be made between in-migration is the movement into a particular place like a region, a district etc within the country while out-migration is the movement away from the district, region etc to another place within the country.
Normally in Africa people move from poorer areas to relatively richer places where living conditions are better in order to increase their incomes. Some move because of avoiding punishments due to crimes they have committed or they escape from enemies and witchcraft. Four patterns of migration can be identified in Africa. They include:-
Rural – urban Migration:
This involves people moving from rural areas to urban areas in search of non – agricultural employment which is more paying (or expectation of getting job opportunities), better social amenities like medical services, education, reliable water supply, efficient transport and entertainment .
Most of the migrants are young and energetic people and especially males. The main centers of attraction are ports, industrial zones, and national and region capital cities. For example, in Nigeria School leavers and apprentices migrate to Ibadan and Lagos cities with expectation of getting jobs. This creates major employment problems for the government.
Impacts of Rural – urban Migration
In the source regions (rural areas) there occur the following consequences:-
Rural depopulation due to the movement of especially young people to the urban areas. As young people leave the rural areas old people, women and children are left. Hence, there occurs a problem of labor shortage and inefficient production.
Economic decline in rural areas because the resources are not utilized due to labor shortage. For example most of the land lies idle leading to agrarian crisis or agricultural failure.
Shortage of food supply (food crisis) because of poor agricultural performance, which in turn leads to starvation or famine, health deterioration and deaths.
Breaking of family and cultural bonds in the rural areas.
It can have positive impacts like creating room for environmental conservation in the rural areas and reducing the problem of overpopulation or population pressure in rural areas.
In the destination regions (urban areas):
It causes overpopulation and overcrowding. These in turn bring about the problems of poor housing coupled with the development of Shantytowns or slums, congestion in transport facilities and land degradation.
There occurs the problem of unemployment since people are more than economic sectors.
It leads to inadequacy in the social services like supply of pure and safe water, medical services, food supply, etc
Environmental pollution due to poor waste management like poor sewage disposal, excessive generation of wastes etc.
Cultural deterioration due to mixture of people from different areas with different cultural background.
Rise of immoral activities and different vices like crimes, prostitution, corruption, burglary, etc.
Industrial decline since rural areas no longer supply enough raw materials for the industries in towns.
Emergency of informal sectors like food vending, peddling done by the hawkers like ‘The Machingas’ in Tanzania, “Jua Kali’ in Kenya.
Emergency of street children in towns caused by prostitution or poor marriage bonds as a result of economic crisis in town. There are so many street children in Africa and are called as CHOKOLA in Kenya.
Introduction of rural cultural in towns like witchcraft or superstition. Etc
Rural – urban migration can have positive impacts in that it can lead to the supply of labor in the industrial sectors and hence it can stimulate industrial development.
Another positive impact can be the expansion of market for goods produced in different economic sectors.
Infusion of technology that come along with the people from rural areas. This technology can be utilized for developing Appropriate Technology Industries.
Addressing or Solving the Problems of Rural –urban Migration
Elimination or reduction of income differentials between rural and urban areas. This can be done by investing the capital in the rural areas. Investing in rural areas can encourage some people in urban areas to move to rural areas.
Creating many other small urban centers so that some people can go to those new centers. These can reduce overpopulation in one town and stimulated economic development as well as environmental soundness.
Enacting strict policies, which restrict unnecessary massive movement of people from rural areas to urban areas.
Providing social services in rural areas, which are comparable to those given in urban areas such as good and effective medical services, education and electricity.
Setting good prices for the agricultural crops so that people can be encouraged to continue working in rural areas rather than rushing to towns for non – agricultural activities which are more paying than agricultural activities.
Transport and communication systems should be improved so as to facilitate the movement of goods, people and information flow.
There should be strict programs on population control in rural areas so that the rate of birth can be contained within sustainable limits.
Urban – rural Migration
Is the migration in which people move from urban areas to rural areas. This is also called counter urbanization. It is rare in Africa but now common in the developed countries where many people like staying in the countryside within the sub urbanized villages.
People go to rural areas to avoid air or noise pollution in the urban centers.
Other people go back to rural areas after retirement since they find it difficult to cope with vagaries of the urban life.
Unskilled people from rural areas can find it difficult to secure jobs in towns hence can decide to return to rural areas.
In the developed countries, people are encouraged to go to rural areas by the supply of necessary social and economic amenities, which are also available in towns.
The government can encourage or force people to go to rural areas to open up the potential land lying or to solve the problem of population pressure in towns.
The outbreak of terrible and moribund diseases in towns like meningitis, cholera and AIDS can force people to rural areas.
Lack of safety due to vandalism or hooliganism and burglary as well as frequent conflicts and social tensions can force people to run away from urban areas to rural areas.
Lack of space to locate industries and other large – scale economic sectors can lead to urban rural migration since these need large space.
Problems which can be caused by urban – rural migration can include:
Outbreak of conflicts with the old residents because of encroaching into their pieces of land or land deprivation.
The rise in the house prices and hence leading to the problem of housing.
More traffic congestion in the rural areas which can cause problems of delays, etc.
Land degradation like soil erosion as well as deforestation can occur.
Interference with culture in the rural areas leading to moral deterioration.
Decline in agricultural activities since most of the arable land turns into residential areas and industrial centers.
Increase in pollution like air pollution, noise pollution and water pollution.
Increase of crimes and other vices which are common in urban areas.
Advantage of Urban –rural Migration:
It can stimulate utilization of resources in rural areas. People can provide labor to work on the land lying idle like in the Rufiji basin, exploiting minerals, etc.
It reduces population pressure in towns and leads to the environmental improvement hygienic conditions.
It reduces the burden facing the government in terms of providing social services even to people who are idle.
Reduces the problem of beggars in urban centers.
It facilitates the general economic development in rural areas and reduces the economic gap between rural and urban areas.
Rural – rural Migration
This is the movement of people from one village to another village. One shifts to another village which is more economically advanced, more peaceful, to avoid witchcraft, running away from enemies or to follow his or her relatives.
Urban – urban Migration:
It’s the movement of people or person from one town normally less developed to another town, which is normally more developed. For example one can move from Tanga to Arusha, Morogoro to Dar es Salaam, etc
Consequences (Impacts or Effects) of Migration;-
The consequences of migration can be either negative or positive both in the origin (where people or migrants come from or source region) and in the destination (where people or migrants go to).
In the Origin
Negative Consequences Include:-
Depopulation of people leaving old people who cannot produce at all and hence labor shortage occurs and the population structure is affected.
Drain of skills or technology from the source regions leading to poor resources utilization.
Decline in the production process since resources are not utilized fully due to the shortage of labor following the exodus of young and energetic people.
Poor food supply and hence deterioration of health.
Low life expectancy since people left in the source region suffer the problem too young.
There occurs an increase in poverty in the source regions especially rural areas.
Positive Consequences Include:
Migration can bring about redistribution of population and solve problem of overpopulation. In this aspect the government can decide to move people from overpopulated areas to under populated areas through establishing resettlement schemes or villages.
Planned migration can facilitate provision of services and labor manpower mobilization. For example, establishment of Ujamaa villages in Tanzania is a good example of planned migration through which people were made to settle in areas where they could easily for get some assistance from the government and be mobilized easily for the viable development of resources available especially land.
Migration has advantage of creating space or more room for industrial expansion particularly if the industries in question are supposed to be located in areas, which are not overpopulated.
In the Destination
Negative Consequences Include:
There occur problems of overpopulation and overcrowding leading to pressure for resources.
Famine occurs due to shortage of food supplies since there are too than many people.
The problem of unemployment occurs because people are more than the available economic sectors.
Alarming rise of crimes and many other social vices like drug abuse, prostitution, burglary, killings etc.
Spread of diseases by the migrants such as Ebola by people from Congo to Uganda, AIDS etc.
Environmental degradation due to over exploitation of resources and poor environmental management.
Inadequacy of economic and social services like medical services, marketing places, poor housing etc.
Low life expectancy because of unhygienic conditions, poor nutrition as well as poor medical services.
Transport problems like congestion, traffic jams, which cause delays and accidents.
There occurs the rise of uncontrolled informal sectors like food vending, woodcarving, kiosks, and drug trafficking.
Inordinate increases in the number of some of whom are not having genuine problems but are just jobless people.
It limits the chance of industrial expansion due to lack of space caused by overpopulation.
Positive Consequences:
It promotes the supply of labor that can be used in exploiting or harnessing the idly lying resources like minerals, land, water bodies, etc.
It can encourage or stimulate the diffusion of technology into the destination from other areas. The people who migrate possess different skills of different environmental orientations. These can be spread into the destination and help in the utilization of local resources.
Migration can lead to the expansion of market for the local goods in the destination regions.
It can encourage intensification of agricultural activities as a result of the reduction in the size of arable land.
It can stimulate the growth of towns (urbanization) and the associated advantages.
Development of strong defense against external enemies.
Outline the Problems Associated with Population in the World
Low level of technology in the developing countries leading to poor and unsustainable resources utilization.
Environmental problems like floods, drought, soil erosion, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, storms, pollution, deforestation etc that pose adverse effects on population.
Social problems like crimes, congestion, prostitution, theft and street children as well as poor social services like medical treatment and housing due to overpopulation. Other social problems include gender imbalance in which women are marginalized in many important social economic sectors of the country, illiteracy, unemployment, etc.
Rapid population growth that exceeds the potential capacities of resources.
Resource exhaustion caused by over exploitation for economic development.
Political instability characterized by frequent wars that have brought massive deaths and movement of people as refugees and tribalism like in Kenya and Nigeria which causes civil wars.
Some areas are overpopulated due to uneven distribution and rapid population growth caused by either high birth rate or migration.
Poverty as a result of poor economic performance caused by low technology and unnecessary massive migration.
Transport and communication systems are poor in many countries especially the developing world leading to low mobility, low industrial development and poor trade.
Spread of diseases like AIDS and cholera.
Excessive migration from rural areas to urban areas leading to depopulation in rural areas and overpopulation in urban areas.Discuss how population problems can be mitigated:-
Manpower Development in Tanzania
Manpower development is one of the ways geared towards solving population problems as well as economic and environmental predicaments.
Manpower development involves the strategies of improving the potentially viable capacities among the individuals in the country in order to make use of resources more rationally and sustainably.
Strategies of manpower development in Tanzania include:
Training centers like vocational centers for imparting various skills to people like carpentry, plumbing, computer training, commercial studies and masonry. Examples of centers for manpower development are LITI in Morogoro, Tengeru in Arusha, Uyole in Mbeya, ADEM (formerly, MANTEP) in Bagamoyo, and National services camps like Mafinga in Iringa.
Adult education programs like workshops, evening classes and seminars have been used to give skills and experiences to people in Tanzania.
People are also being educated through public media like radios, Newspapers, Television, Internet services, books from libraries etc.
MANPOWER MOBILIZATION IN TANZANIA
Manpower mobilization is the process of organizing or gathering people together so that they can use their potentials in doing different development activities in the country or certain community.
Why do we need to Mobilize Manpower?
To be able to utilize the resources sustainably in order to avoid exhaustion or destruction.
To improve efficiency in the production process.
It facilitates the process of combating environmental problems by encouraging the adoption of environmental conservation measures.
Manpower mobilization facilities supervision and evaluation of different activities.
It encourages the advancement of technology since people can be trained easily once they are mobilized.
Also, it becomes easy to help or assist people once they are mobilized. They can be given services like medicine, transport, etc without incurring unnecessary costs.
Manpower mobilization facilities industrial development since it assures a reliable labor supply in the industries and other economic sectors that influence industrial development.
Manpower mobilization leads to increased people’s participation in the decision making process that cover different economic activities.
Strategies of Manpower Mobilization in Tanzania
Through establishing ujamaa, villages under socialist policy introduced by the late Mwalimu Nyerere. Being in villages people could work together and get services more easily.
Introduction and reinforcement of Manpower deployment policy (Nguvu kazi) in which all people were supposed to work rather than loitering in the streets aimlessly. In this case, anybody who was seen roaming about without work was put to task. Each person was supposed to move along with him/her bearing an identity card or any document verifying card or any document verifying that he/she is not a loiterer and hence his/her movement is justifiable.
The government also decided to employ people in the public sectors so as to serve for the development of the community or the country as a whole. For example some people are employed in the industries, construction activities, hospitals, schools, etc.
Conscripting people in the National service camps like Mafinga, Mlale, Ruvu and Masange in order that they can produce and help in the building of the nation.
The government is encouraging people to form groups so that they can be given loans that can be used as capital to be invested in different economic sectors. For example PRIDE AFRICA and Mama Mkapa’s Trust Fund that offers equal opportunity for all are geared towards financing people so that they can engage themselves in different economic activities so as to facilitate the general development of the country while fighting against poverty. Coupled with this is the relaxation of condition in security the credits.
There has been establishment of small market places for small traders like the Machingas complex e.g. at Makumbusho area and near Karume stadium in Dar es Salaam.
Establishing small Scale Industries like SIDO in which local people are involved in the production. Example of SIDO can be drawn from Gerezani in Dar es Salaam. Most of these industries use appropriate technology that utilizes local skills.
Provision of education and special training to people so that they can be ready to face different challenges with confidence and strong determination while having clear direction of their efforts.
Problems Facing the Mobilization of Manpower in Tanzania
Lack of capital to be invested in different economic sectors where human labor will be employed. For example, there are no enough industries to absorb skilled labor from universities.
Manpower is largely semi – skilled due to poor learning environments. Some centers are not having enough learning facilities and even the instructors or teachers are not well qualified.
There is a problem of migration involving movements of unskilled labor from rural areas to urban areas. These stay jobless in town and are reluctant to go back to the rural areas. Hence, the people who remain in rural areas are old ones, young women and children who cannot be mobilized effectively in the production process. Also, skilled labor is not enough due to the movement of the educated people to other country the aspect called ‘brain drain’.
Also, low support from the government as well as poor or unclear policies or manpower mobilization.
Political problems, which involve conflicts or misunderstanding, make the process of mobilization become difficult.
Poor transport and communication make the process of mobilizing manpower become difficult
Decline in resources, diseases, and environmental pollution discourage mobilization of manpower in Tanzania.
POPULATION GROWTH AND ITS SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PLANNING
Population growth is calculated by taking into account the birth rates and death rates. Hence, it can be calculated as the Natural Population Growth o Numerical Population Growth.
Natural Population Growth (Annual Growth Rate or Natural Increase) is the difference between the Birth Rate and the Death Rate. Population due to migration is excluded since it forms the artificial increase.
GEOGRAPHY FORM SIX:POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Natural Growth Rate = CBR – CDR – Migration.
The population growth rate is expressed as per thousand or percentage. But it is usually expressed as percentage. For example if the CBR is 52 per 1000 and the CDR is 14 per 1000. Then the Natural Population Growth Rate is:
= 3.8%
Numerical Population Increase is the actual (absolute) increase of the number of people in an area within a given period. It is calculated by getting the difference between two consecutive censuses. It can be expressed as a percentage.
For example country x had a population of 10, 942,702 in 1969 and a population of 15,327,061 in 1979.
| Year | Total Population |
| 1979 | 15,327,061 |
| 1969 | 10,942,705 |
| Inter – censual numerical population increase 1969 – 1979 | 4,485,356 |
GEOGRAPHY FORM SIX:POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Hence the 1969 – 1979 inter – censual growth rate.
= 4.4 %
Numerical population growth is important because it gives the realistic (or absolute) increase of population in a country. The country concerned can base its economic planning on such absolute figure unlike the natural population growth, which is calculated from a sample representative of a thousand people.
Factors Influencing Population Growth:-
Fertility: While there is high fertility there is high population growth like in Kenya. This can even lead to population pressure in some areas. While where the fertile rate is low the population growth is low. Fertility varies among women Nutrition, health services, and traditional customs (like prolonged breast – feeding, sexual abstinence following the child birth and polygamy: and socio-economic circumstances like education and the level of economy.
Mortality: Where there is low mortality rate there is high population growth and where there is high mortality rate there is low population growth.
Population Growth Trend
Global Trend: The major trend of population growth has been a decline in the current time from a peak 2.1% per annum in 1965 – 70 to approximately 1.7% in 1992 (WB). But, still there continues to be more persons 9about 150 people per minute or about 96 millions per annum) added to the total population than ever before in the human history.
There has been generally low or no population growth in some areas and high population growth in other areas. Recent evidence has shown that fertility rate in economically developing countries have at least begun to decline. But the decline pattern has been very complex such that in East Asia the decline in fertility is rapid, in the sub – Saharan Africa is very limited and moderate in the Latin America.
Regional Trends: There exists a distinction between developed countries and less developed countries. At present the average population growth rate for developed countries is 0.64% per annum and for the developing countries is 2.07%.
Therefore there is high rate of population growth or expansion in the developing countries especially in the Sub – Saharan countries like Tanzania, Nigeria and Kenya. This rapid population growth or expansion is referred to as population explosion.
The causes of rapid growth rate (population explosion) in these countries include:-
Cultural beliefs which include:-
(i) Sex preference: Some people consider giving birth to girls only as incomplete hence they continue getting more children with the hope of getting a male child.
(ii) The need for more children as sign of prestige or measure of manhood and womanhood. Also many people feel secure when they have many children since they will not get problems in their old ages.
(iii) Early marriages also encourage women having many children from their young ages to menopause (45-49 years).
(iv) Polygamy has also led to the high rate of child bearing and some men regard polygamy as a measure of manhood and self esteem.
(v) Naming of relatives is another cultural factor. The couples like getting sons and daughters in order to name their parents and other important relatives in the clan.
Health services: Improved health services have led to the decline in death rate. With improved health services there has been a great control of diseases like malaria, small pox, etc. The life expectancy has been increasing and infant mortality rate has also declined leading to the increase of fertility.
Availability of food: With improved farming techniques people can produce surplus food hence their reproductive capacity has increased due to improved health. People also are not worried since they feel that they can feed more population as a result of high food production.
Modernization: Youth nowadays mature faster than before due to improved nutrition. Due to early maturity they become parents very early and hence start getting children. The provision of better social amenities like water, roads and schools has improved the standard of living of the people, consequently causing a decline in the death rate and increase in population growth rates.
Religion: Religious ideas influence the patterns of individual fertility behavior. Some religious do accept artificial methods of birth control saying that they are quite abominable before God and hence they encourage or advocate natural methods like abstention from sex, which are less effective in birth control. Examples are Roman Catholic and Muslims who say that people should use their common sense instead of banking their ideas on the use of condoms as proper ways of control. They encourage people to love and respect God so as to control the rate of birth in a natural way.
Economic factors:
Due to poverty people like having many children so that they can provide cheap labor. This is common among the Nyamwezi, Ruira, Konongo, and the Sukuma.
Generally, the population growth in these countries is unsustainable.
Why unsustainable?
Answer:
Unsustainable population expansion is the population growth, which does not permit smooth social and economic development as well as environmental soundless.
Population expansion in the developing countries is unsustainable because the rate of increase in the number of people is faster than the economic development such that the available resources do not satisfy the existing number of people.
The fast expansion has led to the occurrence of overpopulation in different places leading to the problems of pressure for land leading to land fragmentation, resource exhaustion like mineral depletion and deforestation, large scale vegetation depletion has led to desertification, environmental pollution has increased, decline in sanitary conditions leading to the outbreak of diseases like cholera and meningitis, unemployment, occurrence of famine, low life expectancy (high death rates), prostitution and the spread of (HIV) AIDS.
Social services are not enough for example due to a greater number of people medical services are not adequate, chances for higher education are not enough distribution of energy and power services is not effective etc. There industrial decline because most of the money that could be invested in industrial development is directed to the support of increased months in terms of buying food. This causes the deceleration of the economic growth. But population expansion can be a blessing in the developing countries due to the fact that:-
It can lead to the availability of labor that can open up the under populated areas where resources are lying idle like the Rufiji Basin. What is important is to control the population distribution.
It can lead to the expansion of market for different goods especially food stuffs. This can in turn encourage the development of trade and industries.
It can encourage the improvement of science and technology especially in agricultural activities.
Is experienced in the areas where there is no population growth due to the balance between birth rate and death rates. Death rates and birth rates are low and population does not fluctuate. Recently, several, of the industrialized including Sweden, Switzerland and Japan, have been producing insufficient number of children to maintain the overall numbers.
This means that the children are born to balance the number of people who have died. It is estimated that zero growth will be the norm in Europe by 2010, in North America 2030, in China by 2070, in South East Asia and Latin America by 2090 and Africa 2100.
Impacts of Population Growth
A growing population can be an ‘asset’ or a ‘liability” that is it can have positive or negative impacts as follows:-
Positive Impacts:
(i) It can provide labour for utilizing the resources living idle in the under populated areas. When the resources like water, land, mineral, fishers and wildlife are utilized judiciously through proper management can contribute to national development. Also people can cooperative in undertaking some measures for environmental conservation.
(ii) It can encourage improvement in science and technology. For example when population grows people can be forced to change agricultural systems from extensive shifting cultivation to intensive sedentary cultivation. And these changes can involve the use of scientific methods for the sake of getting high production and advance in technology.
(iii) Population can enhance industrial and trade development since it can provide market for different goods to both industrial and non – industrial.
Negative Impacts:-
(i) Population growth can create pressure for scarce resources leading to over utilization and exhaustion.
(ii) It can lead to soil erosion and deforestation because of the increased need for food, settlement areas and recreational amenities.
(iii) It can lead to the increase in environmental pollution and complicate the conservation and waste management activities.
(iv) There occur high incidents of crimes exacerbated by unemployment and pressure for resources.
(v) It leads to the increased number of beggars especially in towns.
(vi) Inadequacies of social services like medical treatments and education.
(vii) Spread of diseases due to high rate of pollution accelerated by population growth as well as immoral deeds like prostitution usually accompained with the increase in population.
POPULATION POLICY
Population policy refers to the statement, laws or regulations enacted so as to attain some demographic goals. It is a deliberate effort by the government to influence the demographic goals.
It is a deliberate effort by the government to influence the demographic factors (population dynamics) like fertility, mortality and migration.
Thus the ultimate goal of the population policy is to influence population size, composition, distribution and growth. The policy also tends to take into consideration the relationship between population and development as well as its impact on the environmental condition.
Population policy can be explicit or implicit:-
Explicit population policy refers to the document or clear statement issued by the governmental department and its commissions, which is intended to control population growth and raise the standard of life of the people in the country. Explicit polices can also stem from the laws, policy declarations by a party or directives issued by the President of a country.
Explicit laws are well stipulated and strictly followed or reinforced. Such policies prevailed in China where the limit in the number of children was set and incentives were given to all those who could follow while penalties were given to those who did not follow. Other countries with explicit policies are Sweden and England. Hence the explicit policy is the elaborate statement, which spells out its rationale, objective, goals, targets, policy programmes and implementation.
Implicit population policy refers to particular laws, regulations or statements, which may have direct or indirect effect on population growth. Implicit policy is not as elaborate as explicit since it is some how unclear and cannot be easily understood leading to failure in terms of implementation.
All in all, the population policy whether explicit or implicit has the ultimate aim of influencing a country’s population size, composition, distribution and growth.
CASE STUDIES
POPULATION POLICY IN TANZANIA
Foreword
The revised version of the 1992 National Population Policy (NPP) has been necessitated by the need to accommodate new developments that have taken place nationally and internationally and which have a direct bearing on population and development. Domestically, the economy moved significantly away from being centrally planned to a market economy with increasing dominance of the private sector which plays a more active role in population and development issues. Furthermore, in April 1997 the Government unveiled new Development Vision.
The country’s population growth rate of 2.8 percent per annum has had on adverse effect on development. Though not the only obstacle to development , it aggravates the situation and renders remedial measures more difficult. Rapid population growth has tended to increase outlays on consumption, drawing resources away from savings for productive investments and therefore retarding growth in national output through slow capital formation. In particular, rapid population growth as aggravated the problems of poverty, environmental degradation and poor social services. Furthermore, the problems of sexually transmitted diseases including HIV/AIDS and those facing specific segments of the population like children, youths, the elderly and persons with disabilities have become widespread.
The policy has the goal of influencing other policies, strategies and programmes that ensure sustainable development of the people and promoting gender equality and empowerment of women. It will be implemented through a multi-sectoral and multi – dimensional integrated Government Organizations (NGOs), the private sector, communities and other agencies within and outside Tanzania in implementing the policy. Indeed, individuals, political parties and other organized groups in the civil society are expected to play an active role to ensure attainment of policy goals and objectives.
The principal objective of the country’s development vision is to move Tanzania’s away from poverty and uplift their standard of living. The Policy therefore, gives guidelines for addressing population issues in an integrated manner. In thus recognizes the linkages between population dynamics and quality of life on the one hand, and environmental protection and sustainable development on the other. Its implementation will give a new dimension to development programmes by ensuring that population issues are appropriately addressed.
Preamble
Prior to adoption of the explicit national population policy in 1992, Tanzania pursued implicit population policies and programmes. These policies and programmes were reflected in actions taken by the government in dealing with various issues pertaining to population. These included policies and programmes such as settlement schemes of early 1960s, villagization programme of mid 1970s, provision and expansion of free social services (health, education and safe water), literacy campaigns, provision of family planning services as part of MCH services, limiting employment related benefits (such as tax relief) to four children, and paid maternity leave of 84 days at most once in every three years, and census taking after every ten years. As the economic crisis became severe during the 1980s, the gains achieved ealier, especially in social sectors could not be maintained.
It is in part of this context that in 1986 the Government started the process of formulating a national population policy. By 1988 a draft policy document was ready for discussion by various sectors of the population. This process was finalized in 1992 when the final version of the population policy was adopted, and was followed by the Programme of Implementation in 1995.
The thrust of the policy was to provide a framework and guidelines for the integration of population variables in the development process. Moreover, it provided policy guidelines, which determined priorities in population and development programmes. These were designed to strengthen the preparation and implementation of socio – economic development plan.
To some extent, the 1992 National Population Policy took onboard goals and objectives of the past population programmes. However, new developments that have taken place nationally and internationally have necessitated its revision.
Principles to Guide Policy Implementation
The implementation of the population policy is guided by the following principles:
Consideration of regional and district variations with regard to the level of socio – economic development;
Adherence to the development vision, which among other things emphasizes the role of the market in determining resources allocation and use;
Continued democratization of the political system with its attendant political pluralism as symbolized in the emergence of various political parties / actors and mushrooming of independent mass media;
Thrift exploitation of the country’s non – renewable resources taking into consideration the needs of future generations; and
Recognition and appreciation of the central role of the government, NGOs, private sector, communities and individuals in population and development.
The policy also reaffirms the ICPD principles as embodied in the Plan of Action to the effect that:
All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights. Thus, every human being has the right to life, liberty, security and responsibility;
People are the most important and valuable resources of any nation and all individuals should therefore be given the opportunity to make the most of their potential. As such, all individuals have the right to education and health;
The family is the basis of society and, as such, it should be strengthened. It is also entitled to receive comprehensive protection and support; and
All couples and individuals have the basic right to decide freely and responsibly the number and spacing of their children as well as to have accessibility to information, education and means to do so.
JUSTIFICATION OF THE POPULATION POLICY
This policy takes cognizance of the achievements, constraints and limitations of implementing past population policies as well as new development and continuing challenges.
Achievements
The achievements of both implicit and explicit past population policies included the following;
Considerable awareness of population issues particularly those related to reproductive health and child survival by the masses of the people. For example, fertility, infant, and child mortality has declined overtime;
The adoption of an explicit population policy in 1992, which recognized the links and interrelationships between population, resources, the environment and development;
Expansion and/or introduction of population studies in institutions of higher learning in the country;
Increased number and capacity of NGO’s engaged in population related activities including advocacy and social mobilization, service delivery and capacity building; and
High knowledge and the use of contraceptive methods among both men and women and male involvement of family planning which has increased contraceptive prevalence from about 10 in 1980s to 16 in 1996.
Constraints and Limitations
The constraints and limitations that were encountered during the implementation of the past population policies included the following:
Inadequate human and financial resources;
Poor information communication systems;
Non- establishment of planned institutional arrangements;
Policies which mainly addressed family planning and child spacing activities coupled with reliance on the Government for implementation;
Placing more emphasis on meeting demographic targets rather than the needs of individuals, male and female and;
Inadequate recognition of the causal relationship between poverty, population environment, gender and development.
New Development and Continuing Challenges:-
Since the adoption of the Population Policy in 1992, there have been new developments arising from national and international developments.
These include the Tanzania Development Vision 2025 and international conferences including the 1992 Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), the 1995 Fourth World Conference on Women (FWCW), Copenhagen Social Summit of 1995, the Istanbul City Summit of 1996 and the 1997 World Food Summit.
These new developments have necessitated changes in approaches and policy orientation so as to address:-
Population issues in a holistic manner in development plans as well as recognizing the roles of other partners – civil society, NGOs, and the private sector.
Poverty in its broad dimensions including inequalities in resource use and allocation between women and men and various social groups;
Discriminatory and harmful socio – cultural practices against men and women;
Issues related to reproductive health and reproductive rights;
Interrelationship between population and sustainable development;
Basic needs of the people; and
Problems of crime, poverty, unemployment, poor infrastructure etc, associated with growing levels of urbanization.
Other challenges, which have also necessitated review of the policy, include:
Increased forms and levels of female violence: sexual abuse, neglect and abandonment of children;
Need for more and high quality education and training at all levels;
High prevalence of STDs including HIV/AIDS;
High levels of adolescent pregnancies;
Increasing unemployment due to poor economic performance and labour force growth;
High maternal, infant and child mortality;
Rapid and unplanned urban growth; and
Low status accorded to women in society.
Major Concerns in Population and Development
The major concerns of the population policy encompass the following areas; population and development planning issues; equality, equity and social justice; natural resources and food production; information and databases; and advocacy.
In this regard there is need:
To allocate more resources for literacy, health and education services with a view to increasing their quality, accessibility and availability.
To fully sustainable exploit the natural resources in order to boost the economy and also to ensure sustainability of the resources and environment;
To expand the agricultural production to meet the demanding food requirements;
To ensure availability of up to date and comprehensive data and information for national and effective planning as well as or programme formulation and implementation; and
To adopt gender perspective in development planning and to formulate programmes those enhance full participation of special groups in society.
PRIORITY ISSUES
Based on the concerns expressed in chapter four, the Government has identified a number of priority issues that this policy will address as follows:-
Integration of Population Variables into Development Planning:-
The integration of population variables into development plans and policies is yet to be fully realized. This is due to a number of factors including:
(i) Inadequate commitment and recognition of the relationship between population variables and development;
(ii) Use of short term programmes, which do not adequately address long – term issues;
(iii) Limited capacity building at national, sectoral and district levels;
(iv) Uncoordinated policy formulation due to lack of a long term vision; and
(v) Unavailability of up-to-date, comprehensive sex and age disaggregated data.
Population Growth and Employment:
Due to high population growth in Tanzania, the labour force has been increasing. The present working age population constitutes about 50 percent of the total population, most of whom are unskilled.
This expansion aggravates the already difficult problems of the meager economic activity in the country. Measures taken to restructure the economy such as reducing the size of the Government through retrenchment, employment freeze and promotion of the private sector which uses capital intensive production techniques have resulted in widespread unemployment.
Problems of Special Groups in Society: Children and youths, the elderly and people with disabilities are among groups in the society, which need special programmes to facilitate their full participation in socio – economic development. Refugees as another special group in the society requiring special attention and measures to forestall the negative impact of their influx in the country.
In this policy, children and youths are defined as those aged below 25 Years. This group constitutes 65 percent of the Tanzania population. Severe budgetary cuts to the social sector have aggravated the problems of children’s accessibility to quality health and education services. Retrogressive cultural practices and breakdown of family and societal norms have exposed children to problems such as malnutrition, child labour, abandonment, prostitution and sexual abuse.
In addition, the scourge of HIV/AIDS has led to an increasing number of orphans and possibly of street children. Low productivity, shortage of basic needs and lack of employment opportunities in rural areas have force young people to migrate to urban areas in hope of getting employment but the majority of whom end up in frustration because they cannot find jobs they often become loiterers, thieves and drug addicts.
According to 1988 census, old people aged 65 years and above account for about 4 percent of the population. The problems facing the elderly include loneliness, low income, dwindling respect and lack of access to health services, and in some areas being murdered on account of misguided beliefs in witchcraft.
In Tanzania, the number of people with physical and mental disabilities is not known. Among the problems facing people with disabilities include: stigma, discrimination, lack of training, employment, and assistive devices such as wheel chairs, Braille books, crutches and artificial limbs.
Since independence, Tanzania has hosted a considerable number of refugees from other African countries. The greatest number entered the country in 1994 from Rwanda and Burundi following political disturbances. Most of these refugees were settled in Kagera and Kigoma regions. Among the problems associated with refugees are deforestation, increased crime rate, break out of epidemics and deterioration of social services as well as internal security.
Gender Equity, Equality, and Women Empowerment: Gender
Gender refers to the roles of men and women that are socio – culturally determined. It influences the relationships between men and women in all spheres of interaction. Thus, gender inequality in the society arises when gender roles, responsibilities and resources are unequally distributed between men and women.
In Tanzania, women’s participation and contribution to development have been hampered by discriminatory socio – cultural practices and other laws, regulations and procedures pertaining to childhood socialization, access to and control of property and inheritance as well as participation in formal educational and employment sectors.
For most women, their economics, family and social roles are closely intertwined with their reproductive roles. The task of bearing and rearing children, in addition to constituting health risks, threaten family welfare by imposing excessive domestic chores to mothers. For young girls, early child bearing tends to impede their educational advancement, skills acquisition and career prospects in the formal sector.
Efforts so far made by the Government to rectify gender inequality include setting up:-
Ministry of Community Development, Gender and Children;
Women Development Fund to sensitize and train women at grassroots level in entrepreneurship skills in the informal sector and agriculture, directive to District Councils to allocate 10 percent of revenue to women;
Affirmative action in the political arena which ensures that at least 15 percent of members of parliament as well as 25 percent of counselors in local Governments are women; and
Policies to encourage the formation of NGOs to address issues of gender and empowerment of women.
Reproductive Health
Reproductive health as defined by WHO and ICPD, is a state of complete physical, mental and social well being in matters related to reproductive system including its functions and processes. This implies the right to have a satisfying and safe sex life, the capability to reproduce and the freedom to decide if, when and how often to do so.
Since 1974, the Government has been providing 75 percent of reproductive health services through the MCT/FP clinics; these operate as units in hospitals, health centres and dispensaries. In Tanzania, reproductive health encompasses four major components: family planning, safe motherhood, child survival and STDs/HIV/AIDs.
With respect to quality and accessibility of reproductive health services, limited and inadequate trained staff, equipment and supplies contribute to poor ante – natal, and post – natal services: TDHS (1996) revealed that, though 98 percent of pregnant women attended ante – natal services, only 47 percent of deliveries took place in health facilities.
Similarly, there is high unmet need for family planning services (24 percent) which require outreach programmes. This situation calls for training of service providers, equipping health facilities with basic essential equipment and expanding reproductive health services to communities through community based approach where various community resources members are used (CBDs, TBAs).
Studies have shown that more than 95 percent of the population is aware of HIV/AIDS. Among those who are aware 35 percent of women and 34 percent of man believe that there is no way to avoid AIDS or that they do not know if there is any way to avoid AIDS (TDHS, 1996).
According to the National AIDS Control Programme (NACP), reported AIDS cases in 1990 were 22,084 and the number grew to 88,700 by 1996. Although the epidemic has spread to many regions of Tanzania, Dar es Salaam, Mbeya, Kilimanjaro and Kagera are the most affected.
The most vulnerable persons are the adolescents/youths who are sexually active. The 1996 TDHS reveals that at age 15, 19 percent of girls compared to 9 percent of boys have had first sexual intercourse. And by age 18, this sexual involvement rises to 62 percent of girls and 48 percent for boys.
The prevalence of female circumcision also known as Female Genital Mutilation (FGM), is confined to only certain regions of the country and is estimated at 18 percent (TDHS, 1996). The proportion varies by region, from less than 1 per cent in Arusha. These practices are more prevalent in rural (21 percent) than urban (10 percent) areas; they take place at the ages of 5 years and below (9 percent), 6-10 years (30 percent), 11-15 (32 percent) and at the ages of 16 years and above (15 percent).
Infant and child morbidity and mortality rates are still high. Major causes of infant mortality include diarrhea diseases, malnutrition, malaria, anaemia, respiratory tracts infection and HIV/AIDS. In order to further reduce the morbidity and mortality, efforts will be made to increase immunization coverage and strengthening management of childhood illness.
There is a remarkable increase in the proportion of the elderly people with reproductive health problems. Some of the problems which need to be addressed include menopausal discomforts and reproductive track cancers. There is therefore, need to establish and provide reproductive health services for the elderly.
Men have a key role to play in reproductive health issues. However, intended efforts have not been adequately made to involve them fully. Hence, it is crucial to ensure male involvement in reproductive health activities.
GOALS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY
Goals of the Policy
The main and overriding concern of the population policy is to enable Tanzania achieve improved standard of living and quality of the life of its people. Important aspects of quality of life include good health and education, adequate food and housing, stable environment, equity, gender equality and security of individuals. The main goal of the policy is to influence policies, strategies and programmes that ensure sustainable development of the people.
The sub – goals of this main goal are to contribute to:-
1. Sustainable economic growth and eradication of poverty;
2. Increased and improved availability and accessibility of high quality social services;
3. Attainment of gender equity, equality and social justice for all individuals;
4.Harmonious relationships among population , resources utilization and environment; and
5. Improvement, availability and timely dissemination of population information.
Objectives of the Policy
1.To harmonize population and economic growth;
2. To promote an integrated rural – urban development;
3.To promote employment opportunities;
4. To promote gender equity, equality, and women empowerment;
5. To transform socio – economic and cultural values and attitudes that hinder gender equality;
6. To enhance proper upbringing of children and youths;
7. To promote the well- being of the elderly and people with disabilities;
8. To improve the capacity of the country to address refugees problems;
9. To promote public awareness on individual sexual and reproductive health and rights;
10. To promote and expand quality reproductive health care services;
11. To increase agricultural production;
12. To improve nutritional status of the people;
13. To promote integrated and sustainable use and management of natural resources;
14. To improve the preparedness and management of disasters and emergencies;
15. To ensure adequate supply of safe and clean water;
16. To encourage the private sector, NGOs and religious organizations to invest in provision of education;
17. To promote and provide equitable and quality education;
18. To improve population data collection and research, and their timely,
19. To improve training in population issues;
20. To create an enabling environment that will facilitate acceptance of population issues namely; reproductive health, population and development and gender concerns; and
21. To mobilize necessary resources for implementation of the National population Policy
Based on the identified priority issues, the following strategies will be adopted to achieve the National Population Policy goals and objectives.
Integration of Population Variable in to Development Planning
1. Integrating population variables in development planning;
2. Creating awareness to the masses of the link between population, resources, environment, poverty eradication and sustainable development;
3. Building the capacity of planners at district and national levels in mainstreaming population issues in development plans with gender perspective;
4. Encouraging the private sector and local communities to be actively involved in initiating, implementing and financing population programmes;
5. Improving productivity of small scale farmers and industries; and
6. Promoting non- agricultural production in rural areas.
Population Growth and Employment
1. Creating enabling environment for investors in all sectors, especially in the rural areas,
2. Promoting self – employment opportunities in the informal sector;
3. Providing labour market information to employers and job seekers;
4. Promoting labour intensive industrial development; and
5. Promoting viable family formation
Problems of Special Groups in Social:-
The Elderly:-
1. Encouraging the private sector, NGOs and religious organizations to invest in provision of social service especially health for the elderly;
2. Establishing social security measures that address problems of the elderly; and
3. Encouraging traditional community based support networks to the elderly.
Children and Youths
1. Encouraging the private sector, NGO’s and religious organizations to invest in provision of social services for the children and youths;
2. Development talents and capabilities of children and youths; and
3. Development policies and laws that support of family stability.
People with Disabilities
1. Encouraging the private sector, NGO’s and religious organizations to invest in provision of social services for people with disabilities;
2. Developing talents and capabilities of people with disabilities;
3. Establishing social security measures that address problems of people with disabilities; and
4. Developing National Policy on People with Disabilities.
Refugees
1. Establishing preparedness plan for handling refugees.
Gender Equity, Equality, and Women Empowerment:-
1. Promoting participation of women in decision making;
2. Increasing awareness of the society about the importance of education for all children especially the girl child, and boys under difficult circumstances;
3. Promoting women employment opportunities and job security;
4. Eliminating all forms of discrimination and gender based violence;
5. Encouraging women and men to participate equally in household chores;
6. Ensuring mainstreaming of gender concerns in development plans and policies;
7. Carrying out advocacy activities on gender and population issues; and
8. Advocating the value of the girl child and boys under difficult circumstances and creating a conducive environment for strengthening their image, self- esteem and status; and
9.Promoting societies positive gender knowledge, attitudes and practices.
Reproductive Health
1. Promoting measures to eradicate harmful traditional practices including female genital mutilation (FGM);
2. Sensitizing the public on the benefits of productive health to all individuals;
3. Promoting and expanding the scope of reproductive health advocacy, IEC programmes;
4. Encouraging the participation and involvement of communities in the provision of reproductive health care services;
5. Improving the quality and efficiency of reproductive health care delivery system;
6. Establishing specific reproductive health services to cater for the adolescents, youths, men and the elderly;
7. Offering comprehensive reproductive health services addressing neglected problems including infertility, STDs, post- natal care, and abortion complications; and
8. Improving immunization coverage and strengthening management of childhood illnesses.
CHINA
Population
China is generally said to be overpopulated since it has insufficient food, minerals and energy resources to support its high population. It is the most populous in the world followed by India. The people in China frequently suffer from natural disasters e.g. drought, floods and famine as well as diseases.
They are also characterized by low incomes, poverty, poor living conditions and high levels of emigration. By 1990, 23% of the world’s population lived in China.
Why China Experienced High Rates in 1950’s?
1. The government encouraged high birth rate under the philosophy that “a large population gives a strong nation” and hence people were encouraged to have as many children as possible. This was called as pro- natal approach and there was confidence that China could feed her population however rapidly it increased.
2. At the same time death rates were falling due to improved food supplies and medical care.
Population Control in China
1. During the 1960’s the population increased by 55 million after every three years.
2. The rate family planning programmes were introduced in the 1970s in which the government encouraged family planning services, which could promote maternal and child health benefits as well as economic and ecological advantages. The slogan ‘Later, longer, fewer was introduced and this implied later marriage, a longer interval between births and fewer children. The family planning services were community based. By 1975 the average family size had fallen to three children. But the government still considered it as too big.
3.In 1979 the anti – natalist – one child- per family policy was introduced by the government. With this policy the government hoped to reduce natural increase to zero by the year 2000 and hence avoid the population growth beyond 1200 million.
Fulfilling that the following was done:-
1. The single child policy offered specific incentives for parents only having one child and penalties for those who had more than one child. Glory Certificates were introduced and these entitled a couple and their child to various financial, employment, educational and other benefits in exchange for promise to have no further children after the first – born . (A child could have free education, priority to housing, pension etc.)
2. Abortion become compulsory
3. Marriage was set to 22 years for males and 20 years for females, the couples were pressurized to accept official promoted norms and more over application could be made for some people who wanted to marry or seek permission for having a child.
Constraints to the Policy:-
1. In rural areas the policy faced resistance since some feared that by accepting the policy there could reach a time when the society could have too many dependent old people and too working young people.
2. In many rural localities the single – child policy has never been strongly enforced and in 1987 the government began to relax in enforcing the policy. Following the resistance, the people in rural areas were allowed to have two children but urban dwellers to maintain a single child.
However, despite all these attempts to reduce population the number of people has been growing and the population is higher than what was intended and will continue growing up to above 1500 million before 2025.
POPULATION CONTROL IN UK
Britain is the home of industrial revolution hence it witnessed a high natural increase in population between 1760 – 1880. This economic prosperity led to the decline of death rate since there was an improvement in medical care, improved sanitation and water supply, improved food production (in quality and quantity), improved transport.
From 1880 to date birth control programmes were introduced so as to slow down population increase. The birth rates were kept low through family planning, which included the use of contraceptives, sterilization, abortion and government incentives for smaller families. Lower birth rates were also due to the influence of increased industrialization and mechanization which led to the influence of increased industrialization and mechanization which led to the need of fewer labourers, increased desire for material possessions (car, holiday bigger homes) and less desire for larger families, education and emancipation of women enabling them to follow their own careers rather than being solely child – bearers.
The impacts of birth control are that the population is aging (consisted of old people and fever young people). The aging of the population will later bring problems in labour supply since the old people will not be able to work effectively and even reproduce well.
Population and resources are so interrelated since they both affect each other. Human life depends on the ability of the resource to sustain it and human has some impacts on the existence of sustainability of the resources. So the number of people, distribution of population, the structure of population, the ability of the resource to sustain it and the techniques of production used are so important aspects when considering the population and resource relationship.
On this basis the area can be said to be having optimum population or over population or under population. This depends on the extent to which the resources are used and the way in which they are used.
Optimum Population
It is the population in which the number of the people is in balance with the available resources. In this state when the population is working with all the resources there will be the highest per capital economic returns – i.e. the highest standard of living and quality of life. Optimum population can be maintained if the exploitation of new resources or development of other forms of employment keeps pace with the increase in population. If the population becomes too large the law of diminishing returns starts to operate.
Overpopulation
Overpopulation occurs where there are too many people in relation to the resources and technology locally available to maintain in ‘adequate’ standard of living. Bangladesh, Ethiopia, parts of China, Brazil, and India are said to be overpopulation as they have insufficient food, minerals, and energy resources to sustain their population. They often suffer from localized natural disasters such as drought and famine.
They are characterized by low incomes, poverty, poor living conditions and often-high level of emigration.
Overpopulation is caused by:-
High Birth Rate, Immigration
These depend on the factors like availability of resources like fertile land and mineral deposits, traditional attitudes (caused by low education) among the societies of regarding that a big number of children is prestige or assurance for labour in the future, outbreak of wars in the neighboring areas, improved health services etc.
Effects of Overpopulation
1. Increase in the dependency ratio: This means that number of young population who can’t work is larger than the working population.
2. Pressure for resources: Large number of people press strain on resources like land leading to land fragmentation, mineral and forest causing exhaustion and hence slowing down of development.
3. Unemployment: Too many people cannot be absorbed in the economic sectors and hence a big number of people remain jobless.
4. Emigration: People migrate from the areas with high population to areas with low population where there is no pressure for resources. For example people are moving from Kilimanjaro to other parts of Tanzania like Morogoro and Tanga.
5. Poor housing and health services: Overpopulation brings about the problem of housing whereby the houses are poor overcrowded. This problem is so common in Dar es Salaam especially Manzese, Kariakoo, Ilala, Buguruni and Vingunguti.
6. Decline in the life expectancy: The life- span decline because of the problems like poor health services, poor food. Therefore, people die even before reaching old age. Ignorance of the people, unsanitary conditions and lack of financial resources has contributed to the decline of the life – span.
7. Slowing down of industrial growth; this occurs due to unskilled labour and poor market since majority of the people have poor income. Also, people can’t work properly due to poor health.
8. Increase in Crimes: As a result of unemployment incidences of crimes increase. For example in areas of high population theft and killings are common.
9. Easy spread of Diseases: When the population is high diseases spread very rapidly. AIDS has been a common problem due to prostitution, which has been taken by some jobless girls or women as a source of income.
10.Increase of Beggars: Beggars also increase due to unemployment and this is a common problem in Dar es Salaam.
11. Overpopulation: Causes the problem of congestion in the streets, hospitals, schools and transport vessels.
How can the Problem of Overpopulation be solved?
Population Problems
Population problems in the undeveloped countries:-
1. Low level of technology which inhibits agricultural efficiency and the development of industries. Because of low technology in these countries resources are not used property and the traditional methods are still predominant.
2. Under- population is another problem. In some areas good resources are lying idle due to the low population that can utilize those resources for example Brazil and Congo.
3. Unbalanced development: This manifested by the imbalance in the level of development between the rural and urban areas. The urban areas are more developed than rural areas as a result of differences in the technological levels. Rural areas are characterized by low level of technology, which leads to poor production.
4. Poor food supply due to agricultural performance. Agricultural (agrarian) crisis has been caused by low level of technology, overpopulation, under population, poor agricultural policies, poor capital availability, poor transport system, poor education services leading to mass scale illiteracy, and natural hazards like drought, floods and global warming. Also, food crisis is caused by restlessness of people like the refugees, marginalization of women in the ownership of land, etc.
5. There is low life expectancy due to poor health services, poor sanitation, poor nutrition, poor medical services, early marriages and diseases like HIV-AIDS, malaria, meningitis etc.
6. There are housing problems especially in the urban areas where there is overpopulation. In the urban areas the number of people is too large to accommodate such that some houses are overcrowded and some other people are homeless. Rural – urban migration has greatly added to the magnitude of this problem.
7.There is low per capital income since many people are not employed due to the fact that the economic sectors are fewer than the number of people especially in towns. In rural area poor production due to the use of low technology has contributed to the predominance of low income per capital. Worse still, the crops produced in the rural areas face the problems of poor marketing system (low prices), poor storage facilities, pests and diseases that lead to great losses etc.
8. Population is migratory (restless). People especially the young are always on movement to urban areas leading to rural depopulation and agricultural decline.
Solutions to the population problems in the underdeveloped countries
1. There should be infusion of capital, probably in form of foreign aid, to finance development in these countries.
2. There should be improvement in the marketing system both locally and internationally by giving good prices to the farmers.
3. Educating farmers and inculcating in them modern skills of production.
4. Improving transport and communication so as to open up the areas which are under populated.
5. There should be control of population growth by keeping low or encouraging the decline in birth rate through family planning programs and delays in marriages.
6. Formulating and reinforcing strict and practicable policies on economic and social development. Policies should focus on enabling people to utilize resources rationally thereby organizing their activities while considering the necessity of improving the environment.
Population Problems in the Economically Advanced Countries
Underdeveloped countries do not have monopoly of population problems though their problems are more wide spread and more difficult to solve. It is , however, worthwhile to note the problems of industrial and urbanized countries, some of which are becoming increasingly more serious. These problems include:
1. Ageing of population. Is a serious problem in the advanced countries like U.K. due to low birth rate, low death rate, and high life expectancy there is an over-increasing proportion of older people in the population. Hence there will be fewer people to support the elderly. The elderly people are dependent on small working, population. Ageing leads to problems like provision of pensions and other extra health services, pose financial problems and economic decline.
2. Small work force, Due to low birth rate labour force expands very slowly while industrial and other employment opportunities continue to multiply. As the work force is well educated there is a problem of unskilled labour since the majority of workers are skilled. Hence, the workforce is relatively small while wages are high. Hence, there has been migration of workers from countries like Italy, Yugoslavia, Turkey and Greece to Germany and Switzerland where there are insufficient workers.
3. Rural depopulation. There is movement of people from the rural areas to urban centers since the urban centers provide amenities such as shops, entertainment, better medical services, water supply, education which cannot be matched with the country districts. Employment is usually easier to find in urban areas than in rural areas. In some areas farms are even abandoned. Hence, the rural areas suffer a decline in the living standards if no mechanization is used.
4. Urbanization problems. As the urban areas expand the pressure on transport, water supplies, sewage and refuse disposal grows. The industries produce smoke and chemical, which cause air and water pollution. There problems of traffic congestion and noise pollution. Tension created due to urban problems lead to far higher incidence of mental illness than in the developing countries. Another problem is the decrease in the arable land due to the urban sprawl. This leads to the decline in agriculture.
5. Environmental problems like acid rain in Germany due to industrialization are another problem that leads to soil pollution.
Problems Common to both LDC’s and HDC’s
1. Uneven distribution, uneven development, overpopulation and under- population exist in both categories.
2. Resources are not evenly distributed.
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